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이 연구는 한국보건사회연구원의 『2005년 전국 결혼 및 출산동향조사』의 기혼여성을 대상으로 첫째 자녀의 출산간격의 결정요인과 무자녀 여성의 출산계획을 분석한다. 연령, 교육, 혼인연령, 자연유산, 인공임신중절, 결혼코호트 등의 변수가 출산간격에 미치는 효과는 다양하고 일의적 해석을 하기가 힘들다. 결혼코호트별로 굴곡이 있지만, 1984-1985년 전에는 출산간격이 줄어들다가 최근 코호트의 출산간격이 늘어났다. 이 출산템포의 변화는 첫째 자녀의 출산간격이 혼인연령과는 별도로 기간 출산율의 변화에 영향을 미칠 수 있음을 말해준다. 이 연구는 자연유산은 출산간격을 늘리고, 인공임신중절은 출산간격을 줄이고 있으며, 최근에 이르러 인공임신중절 의존도는 줄어들고 있음을 보여준다. 본 연구에서 추가자녀계획과 관련하여 흥미로운 결과는 연령을 제외한 모두 변수들의 회귀계수가 통계적으로 유의미한 수치가 아니라는 사실이다. 이것은 회귀방정식에 사용된 사회경제적 배경변수로는 무자녀 여성들의 추가자녀계획을 예측하는 것이 쉽지 않음을 보여준다.


This study investigates the determinants of first birth intervals and fertility plans among the nonparous women, using the ever-married sample from the 2005 National Marriage and Fertility Trend Survey. The birth interval effects of variables such as age, education, marriage age, natural abortion, induced abortion, and marriage cohorts are varied and not unambiguous. The marriage cohort effects appear to have two major winding curves: the first birth intervals decreased before 1984-1985 cohort, but tended to increase in recent years. This change in fertility tempo indicates that first-birth timing can have an impact on period TFR independently of the age at marriage. The analysis reveals that natural abortion delays the first-birth timing, while the opposite holds for induced abortion. Less dependence on induced abortion was notable in recent years. The analysis of fertility plans among the nonparous women in the study sample indicates that none of the demographic and socioeconomic variables except age of the respondent are not statistically significant in predicting the intention of having the first birth in the near future. This implies that the data used for this study do not include any meaningful socioeconomic variables which can determine additional fertility plans among the ever-married women sample from the survey.


This study investigates the determinants of first birth intervals and fertility plans among the nonparous women, using the ever-married sample from the 2005 National Marriage and Fertility Trend Survey. The birth interval effects of variables such as age, education, marriage age, natural abortion, induced abortion, and marriage cohorts are varied and not unambiguous. The marriage cohort effects appear to have two major winding curves: the first birth intervals decreased before 1984-1985 cohort, but tended to increase in recent years. This change in fertility tempo indicates that first-birth timing can have an impact on period TFR independently of the age at marriage. The analysis reveals that natural abortion delays the first-birth timing, while the opposite holds for induced abortion. Less dependence on induced abortion was notable in recent years. The analysis of fertility plans among the nonparous women in the study sample indicates that none of the demographic and socioeconomic variables except age of the respondent are not statistically significant in predicting the intention of having the first birth in the near future. This implies that the data used for this study do not include any meaningful socioeconomic variables which can determine additional fertility plans among the ever-married women sample from the survey.