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이 논문은 제2차 출산력변천 이론을 바탕으로 지역의 차별출산력을 통해 한국의 저출산 인과구조를 확인하기 위한 것이다. 이를 위해 양성평등 관념, 노동시장 불안정성, 가족형성을 결정요인으로 저출산 인과구조의 분석모형을 구성하였다. 자료는 2005년 센서스와 동태통계, 2004년 사업체노동실태현황을 활용하였다. 이 논문은 GIS를 이용하여 주요 변수들의 구․시․군별 분포를 지도로 제시하였다. 그리고 한국의 저출산 인과구조에 대한 일반화된 설명을 위해 분산분석과 경로분석을 실시하였다. 분석결과 양성평등 관념과 노동시장 불안정성은 가족형성과 출산력을 낮추는 부적관계를, 가족형성은 출산력을 높이는 정적관계를 갖는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 양성평등 관념과 노동시장 불안정성은 가족형성을 매개로 출산력에 직․ 간접적인 영향을 미치며 출산력 저하를 이끌고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 결론적으로 한국의 제2차 출산력변천에서 양성평등 관념은 전반적으로 중요한 역할을 수행하고 있으며, 노동시장 불안정성은 대도시 지역에서 초저출산 현상을 크게 가중시키고 있다고 할 수 있다.


This study examines the causal mechanisms of low fertility and regional differentials in Korea. Utilizing the 2005 census and the 2005 vital statistics, and labor statistics at the regional level, major variables were calculated for administrative units of 234 'Gu's, 'Si's and 'Gun's. Gender equity orientation, labor market insecurity and family formation were hypothesized as key factors of recent decline in Korean fertility. This study first presents four maps of gender equity orientation, labor market insecurity, family formation and fertility. Then ANOVA and path analysis were carried out in an effort to generalize the causal mechanisms. Results of analysis reveal that gender equity orientation has played a central role in the second fertility transition in Korea. In metropolitan regions, however, labor market insecurity is found to have a significant influence on the level of family formation and fertility. Family formation also turns out to be an important intermediate variable of fertility.


This study examines the causal mechanisms of low fertility and regional differentials in Korea. Utilizing the 2005 census and the 2005 vital statistics, and labor statistics at the regional level, major variables were calculated for administrative units of 234 'Gu's, 'Si's and 'Gun's. Gender equity orientation, labor market insecurity and family formation were hypothesized as key factors of recent decline in Korean fertility. This study first presents four maps of gender equity orientation, labor market insecurity, family formation and fertility. Then ANOVA and path analysis were carried out in an effort to generalize the causal mechanisms. Results of analysis reveal that gender equity orientation has played a central role in the second fertility transition in Korea. In metropolitan regions, however, labor market insecurity is found to have a significant influence on the level of family formation and fertility. Family formation also turns out to be an important intermediate variable of fertility.