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This study develops a new KOSPI200 implied volatility index and examines its informational content and nonlinear dynamics. The construction of this new benchmark for volatility expectations follows the methodology for calculating the new VIX index from S&P500 options. The empirical evidence suggests that the expected level of volatility in the Korean stock market has been steadily falling since the inception of option trading and the onset of the Asian financial crisis. Implied volatility is found to reflect useful information on future volatility that is not contained in the history of returns, even after allowing for leverage effects. Markov regime-switching models suggest that nonlinearities in volatility expectations are not likely to be driven solely by the asymmetric impact of news but also by regime-dependencies in the realignment mechanism adjusting for forecast errors. The adjustment process is likely to be significant during regimes of lower volatility expectations but financial crises seem to elevate the level of anticipated volatility and impair its adaptive dynamics.


This study develops a new KOSPI200 implied volatility index and examines its informational content and nonlinear dynamics. The construction of this new benchmark for volatility expectations follows the methodology for calculating the new VIX index from S&P500 options. The empirical evidence suggests that the expected level of volatility in the Korean stock market has been steadily falling since the inception of option trading and the onset of the Asian financial crisis. Implied volatility is found to reflect useful information on future volatility that is not contained in the history of returns, even after allowing for leverage effects. Markov regime-switching models suggest that nonlinearities in volatility expectations are not likely to be driven solely by the asymmetric impact of news but also by regime-dependencies in the realignment mechanism adjusting for forecast errors. The adjustment process is likely to be significant during regimes of lower volatility expectations but financial crises seem to elevate the level of anticipated volatility and impair its adaptive dynamics.