초록 close

Assessing North Korea’s internal situation is a near impossible task for anyone on the outside. Access to the country is extremely limited for a selected few and is prohibited for a much larger number. Access to classified information appears to be of little help. Witness the key figures of the Clinton Administration who predicted a collapse of the Kim Jong-il regime in 1994 and 1995 and justified the weaknesses of the 1994 Agreed Framework on the assumption of an early collapse that would render the agreement and its weaknesses mute. They were largely in the dark as we are today. My assessments in this paper could be broken down into 10 percent fact, 20 percent analysis, 50 percent speculation, and 20 percent crystal ball gazing. I may be too optimistic on the extent of analysis.