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본 논문에서는 1999년~2004년 사이의 한국 승용차 시장에 대한 미시자료를 이용하여 구조적 수요함수와 공급함수를 추정하고 개별 승용차 모델별 가격탄력성과 마크업을 계산하였다. 사용한 추정모형은 차별화된 재화를 고려한 이산적 선택 수요추정모형, 그 중에서도 3단계 중첩로짓(nested logit) 모형이다. 논문은 수요함수 및 공급함수 추정 결과를 이용해 자동차 특별소비세의 변화가 자동차의 수요구조와 사회적 후생에 어떤 영향을 미쳤는지 평가하고 폐지시의 효과를 예측해보았다. 추정된 2004년 초의 모델별 가격탄력성과 기업 이윤에 기초하여 시뮬레이션을 해 본 결과, 특별소비세의 일부 인하 및 폐지는 특별소비세를 비롯한 자동차 세수를 감소시키지만 전체적인 사회적 후생은 증가시키는 것으로 나타났다.


From March 2004 through the end of 2005, a 'flexible rate'(20% reduction) had been applied to the special excise tax in the Korean automobile market. There was a debate on the effects of the special excise tax on cars with the restoration to the original rate ahead from January 2006. We investigate how the reduction or abolition of a special excise tax could change the demand structure of automobile market and the social welfare consisting of consumer surplus, firms’ profits, and tax revenue. We first estimate a structural demand and supply function of the Korean automobile market using a product-level transaction data between 1999 and 2004 and calculate each model's price elasticity and mark-up. We use a discrete choice demand estimation model for differentiated products, namely the 3-stage netsed logit model for the estimation. We take into account price, size, horsepower per weight, miles per won as the characteristics of each car. To answer a specific policy issue, we conduct two counter-factual experiments - no application of flexible rate and the complete abolition of the special excise tax on automobile. The simulation results show that the reduction of a special excise tax has reduced auto-related tax revenue but increased social welfare. That is, the application of ‘flexible rate’ has reduced the total revenue from the surtax, the registration tax, the acquisition tax, and the special excise tax by 40 billion won, but increased consumer surplus and firms' profits by 138 billion won and 32 billion, respectively. As a result, the flexible rate has increased social welfare by about 130 billion won. The second experiment shows that the abrogation of the special excise tax on cars would increase the social welfare by 584 billion won at the expense of government tax revenue of 212 billion won.