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Purpose: The aims were to evaluate the main risk factors (RFs) of breast cancer and to estimate the individual disease-probability from combinations of RFs in Korean female. Materials and Methods: We conducted case-control study of 1,687 incident cases of invasive carcinoma and 1,238 controls during 1996∼2000. A breast cancer disease- probability model was established by a general modeling process using a multivariate logistic regression model, which included the main Korean RFs and synergistic interaction-terms. Results: The main Korean RFs selected were age, family history of second relatives, BMI, age at first fullterm pregnancy, breast-feeding, and a special test on the breasts. Two synergisms were observed between age and breast-feeding, and between special test and age at first fullterm pregnancy. The disease-probability and model are shown in Table 4, and Appendix 1. Conclusion: The availability of previous Western models was limited for Korean female due to the differences inhazard-rates and the characteristics of breast cancer between Asian and Western females. Due to limited basic data, i.e. incidence, hazard-rate and cancer-cohorts, the developing-probability of breast cancer for Korean females was not calculated. Therefore, the disease-probability was calculated instead. This approach might be more beneficial for Koreans, and help in the decisionmaking for regular screening or hospital visit-interval, counseling in breast-cancer clinics, prescribing high-risk population, and in educating for primary prevention, although it over-estimates the relative probability compared to the developing-probability and the 65% predictive validity. (Cancer Res Treat. 2003;35:35-51)


Purpose: The aims were to evaluate the main risk factors (RFs) of breast cancer and to estimate the individual disease-probability from combinations of RFs in Korean female. Materials and Methods: We conducted case-control study of 1,687 incident cases of invasive carcinoma and 1,238 controls during 1996∼2000. A breast cancer disease- probability model was established by a general modeling process using a multivariate logistic regression model, which included the main Korean RFs and synergistic interaction-terms. Results: The main Korean RFs selected were age, family history of second relatives, BMI, age at first fullterm pregnancy, breast-feeding, and a special test on the breasts. Two synergisms were observed between age and breast-feeding, and between special test and age at first fullterm pregnancy. The disease-probability and model are shown in Table 4, and Appendix 1. Conclusion: The availability of previous Western models was limited for Korean female due to the differences inhazard-rates and the characteristics of breast cancer between Asian and Western females. Due to limited basic data, i.e. incidence, hazard-rate and cancer-cohorts, the developing-probability of breast cancer for Korean females was not calculated. Therefore, the disease-probability was calculated instead. This approach might be more beneficial for Koreans, and help in the decisionmaking for regular screening or hospital visit-interval, counseling in breast-cancer clinics, prescribing high-risk population, and in educating for primary prevention, although it over-estimates the relative probability compared to the developing-probability and the 65% predictive validity. (Cancer Res Treat. 2003;35:35-51)