ABSTRACT

Until recently, earthquakes in South Korea were not natural disasters that attracted attention. However, due to the earthquake that occurred on Sept. 12, 2016 in Gyeongju and on Nov. 15, 2017 in Pohang, earthquake is one of the natural disasters that people in South Korea feel most at risk. In this situation, it is required to prepare counterstrategies at national level in order to prepare for natural disasters and systematize response systems to minimize damage. In particular, it is essential to establish a long-term plan for natural disasters in ports, which are national infrastructure facilities. The purpose of this study is to develop a model for estimating the loss cost caused by earthquakes in ports. The loss cost can be divided into direct loss cost and indirect loss cost. The direct loss cost is defined as the amount of damage caused directly to the port due to the earthquake. The indirect loss cost is defined as the amount of decrease in the revenue of the port due to the earthquake. In the model, the earthquake occurrence probability is considered according to the strength of earthquake, and the expectation of the loss cost is calculated. The model also includes the overall application procedure for cost estimation. After the model proposal, a case study of a container terminal in Busan port was presented to explain the application of the model.

KEYWORD

earthquake, port, loss cost

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