초록

Since the 1970s, many advanced countries have attempted to increase consumption taxes to finance ever-increasing welfare expenditures. However, increasing consumers’ tax burdens across the board is highly unpopular among voters, generating strong public backlash in elections. Previous studies have shown that the art of raising consumption taxes without such backlash essentially hinges on how voters evaluate the government’s claim for the plan’s necessity and its promise to restrain future increases. Using a list experiment method, we analyzed how Japanese citizens evaluated the government’s claim that the 2014 consumption tax increase would be used solely for welfare policy purposes. The findings show that about 65 percent of respondents showed distrust to the government’s claim on the consumption tax increase purpose. We also found that income has opposite effects: While high-income earners worried less about the consumption tax increase than did low-income earners, high-income earners tended to distrust, more than did low-income earners, the government’s claim that the consumption tax increase would be used solely for welfare policy purposes.

키워드

Japan, Consumption Tax, List Experiment, Government Trust, Social Welfare Spending

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